In today's content, we're going to break down the crazy meta that is hunting by island hopping. Before you make your journey out, you're going to need a couple of things. One, a bunch of Nook Miles tickets. By a bunch, at least you need around 100 of those. And that's only if you're lucky. The second requirement is an open plot on your island. Otherwise, the mystery islands will be void of intelligent life and only consist of resources, bugs, fish, etc. 

Villager hunting by island hopping is horribly tedious because of how the game decides which villager will appear on the island. The game first rolls a specific species. There are 35 different species in the game, so there is a 1 in 35 chance that the type of animal you are looking for will be picked. The game then rolls for a specific villager in that species. Each type has a different number of villagers. For example, there are 23 different cat villagers in the game while there are only 3 octopi. There is a pretty simple math equation to figure out the chances of getting a specific villager. Let's take the octopi example. There is a 1 in 35 chance that an octopus will show up. Next, there is a 1 in 3 chance that the specific octopus villager you're looking for will be picked. Multiplying these fractions together results in a 1 in 105 chance of a specific octopus villager showing up. Now let's do the same thing with cats. 1 in 35 chance times 1 in 23 chance gets you a 1 in 805 chance of a specific cat showing up. Now, this is probably where your logic brain goes, "There are only 391 villagers in the game. How the heck is there a 1 in 805 chance that a specific cat will show up." Well, to make it easier for you to understand, Let's throw it into percentages instead. Let's say you're looking for Merry. There is about a 2.86% chance that a cat will appear on the island. Going further and completing the second roll the game calculates for the specific villager, 1 divided by 805 is .0012 or .12% chance of Merry showing up on the island. Tada. This might make more sense for you now. So, every time you are using a Nook Miles ticket, there is a .12% chance that you don't need to take any more of the chat's Nook Miles Tickets. It is impossible to find a villager on a mystery island that already resides on your main island. For example, if you already have Zucker, an octopus, as a neighbor. then he is unable to show up on a mystery island and thus reduces the number of octopi you can find from 3 to 2. The new equation results in a higher chance of me finding octopi when you island-hopped. This increased from a 0.9% chance to a 1.4% chance. A lot higher than the .12% chance of finding Merry. 

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Another secret is that Villagers are not rolled based on personality or time of day that they are active. It is purely based on species. It does not matter how many a specific personality you have on your island, nor does it matter if it is morning, evening, or night. The villagers on these deserted islands seem to not have a bedtime and can be found at any hour, any day, any month, any time of the year. Also, making Orville blush or clap or whatever does not work either. The game has no idea which villager you are searching for, so it's kinda silly to assume that Orville will give you your dreamie if you make him blush. Stop trying to flirt. Orville and Wilbur aren't the types of birds to give you what you want based on your cuteness. There are statistical equations that tell you the percent chance of rolling the option you are hoping to get after already rolling a bunch of times. The game does not remember which villagers you have already seen. As a result, you're gonna get a bunch of doubles, triples, quadruples, or whatever the word is for how many times is saw Marina and Octavian. While statistically there was a 70% chance that you would find Merry after 1,000 tickets, it doesn't mean that you have a 70% chance of finding Merry. It's still, and always will be a .12% chance of finding her every time you showed up on an island. It's good to be aware that this is a part of statistics, but don't let it fool you into guaranteeing you'll find your villager soon. There's a 99.88% chance you won't find that cat every time you visit an island. Like the other ways to villager hunt, there are exceptions. The move-in queue returns to be a pain in the butt. The 4 villagers that are held in your move-in queue are unable to be found on a mystery island. The only way to check to see if your dreamie is in the queue is to scan the amiibo card. This becomes difficult if you don't have the amiibo card, or the card has yet to exist. And if you have the amiibo card, you're more likely to just use the amiibo rather than island hop like a crazy person. So the safest way to ensure your dreamie is not in your queue is to not visit a friend's island who has your dreamie as a neighbor. and the move-in queue is based on online interactions and it's not just random villagers that the game decides. They seem to only be the villagers that are in your friend's void. Void villagers exist when a villager moves off an island and is not placed at someone else's island. This is how you get villagers that say they are from a specific island.